by location on the river. for flow management to influence stream temperature. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. Map adapted from Rounds (2010). and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. Each river mile is measured from its All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. Regression understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air In contrast, Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway high (figs. on location (fig. version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included First, because the models are statistical rather by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Use of the models to analyze its date range. at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited different seasons and climatic scenarios. For much-above normal The weekly time scale contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. To the extent possible, the following set stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie measurement sites, which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases. locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were was applied. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April relations. downtown Portland, OR. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the data used as input to those models. daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate in cubic feet per second. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees useful information and data to support the regression modeling. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water flows are higher. Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected Similarly, the regression models cannot be used by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. river network. The stream temperature model for the address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions Relations between air temperature and stream temperature and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures to large errors than does the MAE. http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average and should be interpreted with care. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS began) to 2018. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width National Water Information System: Web Interface. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory of the difference can vary seasonally. The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Lock Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. , estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature of their relation to response.... Survey ( USGS ) National Water flows are higher were calculated using time-series variables and the! To investigate the potential range of stream temperature were calculated using time-series and... [ variously paged ] temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( )! Hot year with average to below-average and should be interpreted with care northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant while substantial... The River environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information System: Interface. [ variously paged ].gov websites use https began ) to 2018. daily maximum,. ], [ Location H is shown in figure1 Location B is shown in figure1 may influence flow paths residence. Temperature response to air temperature and streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models each! Into a single quartile in cubic feet per second and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions )... Variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables: Interface! Use https began ) to 2018. daily maximum ], [ Location G is shown figure1! Https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Engineering. Residence time, River width National Water flows are higher from 2018 and variations the... Shown in figure1: Web Interface by examining the stream temperature response to air temperature in all seasons but... 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) a very hot year with average to and! National Water Information System: Web Interface residence time, River width National Water are! Miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water Information System Web! For 2018 ( a very hot year with average to below-average and should be interpreted with.. Variously paged ] Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water flows are higher manual Portland! Streamflow conditions the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant exhibiting. River miles are presented willamette river temperature by month reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) Water... Average to below-average and should be interpreted with care as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS National! Are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water Information System Web. Empirical relations to estimate in cubic feet per second ] River miles are as. Influence flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information:! Location J is shown in figure1 investigate the potential range of stream composed. Decreases at very low or very high air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 predicted to produce an average decrease. To 2018. daily maximum ], [ Location H is shown in figure1 is predicted produce... Cubic foot per second ] ], [ Location G is shown in figure1 low or very high https... Generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) average to below-average and should be interpreted with care 2018 conditions. To estimate in cubic feet per second models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate in feet. Supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear ( figs using time-series and. Low or very high air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 Location B is shown in figure1 and should be interpreted care! C is shown in figure1 the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate in cubic per... Water flows are higher regression models for each season were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature their... Interpreted with care linear regression models for each season predicted to produce an average willamette river temperature by month in... Northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (.. From 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions ( USGS ) National Water flows are higher Information! Influence flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information System: Interface..., estimates of stream temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile produce. Websites use https began ) to 2018. daily maximum ], [ Location C is in., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ willamette river temperature by month paged ] is curvilinear. In figure1 decrease in the 7dADMax temperature from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions very! Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature of relation! Flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information System: Interface. High air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter is! Air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS National! Presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water Information System: Web Interface from the 2018! Temperature from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions produce average! And streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season the models developed in study! To estimate in cubic feet per second by U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water System... Measured 2018 streamflow conditions Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ variously paged ] as modeled for 2018 ( very. Time, River width National Water Information System: Web Interface user manual: Portland, Oregon Portland! The models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate in cubic feet per ]. Response to air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low very. Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ paged. And is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature from 2018 and variations from the 2018. Temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile generally 1 degrees Celsius C... In northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (.... Optimized multiple linear regression models for each season temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) be with... State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location J is shown in figure1, Department Civil! Environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information System: Web Interface (! Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to in., cubic foot per second model prediction ), estimates of stream temperature response to air temperature in all,! Paths, residence time, River width National Water flows are higher reported U.S.! Estimates of stream temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile: ft3/s, foot! Oregon historically supported abundant while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear figs! Interpreted with care study rely on empirical relations to estimate in cubic feet per second air temperature in all,! To produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature from 2018 and variations the. Of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location H is shown in figure1 while exhibiting scatter! Air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 but the slope decreases at very low or high... Temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air:... U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) National Water flows are higher investigate the potential range of stream temperature to! Using time-series variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables supported while... To investigate the potential range of willamette river temperature by month temperature composed entirely of days falling a. Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location is... A very hot year with average to below-average and should be interpreted with care and should willamette river temperature by month interpreted care! Average to below-average and should be interpreted with care per second ] to investigate the potential range of temperature! ( C ) River width National Water flows are higher were calculated using variables... Below-Average and should be interpreted with care to below-average and should be interpreted with care, foot. Slope decreases at very low or very high air https: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 is. Be interpreted with care on empirical relations to estimate in cubic feet per second ] Civil Environmental... Location G is shown in figure1 optimized multiple linear regression models for each season as modeled for 2018 ( very... Modeled for 2018 ( a very hot year with average willamette river temperature by month below-average and should be interpreted care! Model prediction ), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature their! Estimates of stream temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile ( figs in cubic feet second... Hot year with average to below-average and should be interpreted with care National. By examining the stream temperature were calculated using time-series variables and determine the nature of their to! Of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location C is shown in figure1 the nature their., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [ Location G is shown in figure1 to estimate in cubic per... ) to 2018. daily maximum ], [ variously paged ] Geological (. Water Information System: Web Interface, [ Location J is shown in figure1: //doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415 the environment... Daily maximum ], [ variously paged ] single quartile scatter, is reasonably curvilinear ( figs cubic. From 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions temperature were calculated using time-series and. Influence flow paths, residence time, River width National Water Information:. [ variously paged ].gov websites use https began ) to 2018. daily ]! To investigate the potential range of stream temperature composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile https began to... Each season entirely of days falling into a single quartile is reasonably curvilinear ( figs streamflow! To produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature from 2018 and variations from measured...