After years of projections that congressional reapportionment in 2020 would see red states lose political power to blue states that have been inundated with illegal and legal immigration over the . Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. In 2018, he won his second term by just over 13. In Stock. The nations political future is uncertain, as partisans on both sides are waiting to see whether the presidential nominees in 2020 will run again in 2024. Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. The Georgia counties turning the state blue are growing. I was campaigning on jobs, education, broadband internet, infrastructure, all kinds of things that would help this area. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott and [Lt. Gov. Undergirding that advantage, he argues, are laws that make registering or voting in many of the red states more difficult, and severe gerrymanders that have allowed Republicans to virtually lock in indefinite control of many state legislatures. In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. The 16 counties Pritzker won was the most by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Rod Blagojevichs 2006 reelection, when he raked in double that amount. The special examines how COVID-19 and the Draconian policies imposed by Democratic governors resulted in lawlessness, failed education, and botched public health policies. House Republicans are increasingly confident they can make unexpected inroads into some solidly Democratic congressional districts, including in some of the bluest states in the country: California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island. The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. Those things are what got a lot of those voters excited, Landry said. They just didnt vote, period.. Spencer lives next door to Baileys legislative office in Louisville, the county seat, and looks out at the county courthouse where Bailey originally litigated against Pritzker, challenging the governors authority to issue and then extend his stay-at-home orders early in the pandemic. It's time for a new direction. Democrats are defined similarly. It seems unlikely that the Trump-era Republicans installing the policy priorities of their preponderantly white and Christian coalition across the red states will be satisfied just setting the rules in the places now under their control. The most common activity was discussing leaving with family, followed by searching for a place to live. The reputation was red. "Florida is a competitive battleground state in 2022," Executive Director Noam Lee said in a statement . People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. Those states are: California Conencticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York Oregon Rhode Island Vermont Washington. by J. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. & Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. Follow him on Twitter:@chrischudeleon. We wanted to focus on the states in our survey, so we asked where the respondents would most like to live if they had to choose only among these states. The states were: California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. But Republicans were buoyed by a backlash over high prices at the gas pump and grocery stores, opposition to President Joe Bidens immigration policies and fights over rising crime particularly in rural Texas, where the GOP won its strongest margins of the night, Landry said. Lightyear (Feature) by Chris Evans Blu-ray . And red states across the Sun Belt rank among the nations fastest growing in population. But the party couldnt replicate it this time around, in spite of ORourke again leading the ticket as well as lingering anger over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters and a widely criticized law enforcement response to the May 24 school shooting in Uvalde. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some . Ships from and sold by RAREWAVES-IMPORTS. The results highlight just how closely the country is split when selecting between governors who have developed two radically different state-level policy visions. The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced it would ask the public for any information on potential hazards associ. Governors in both red and blue states have watched their approval ratings sink throughout the pandemic. Measured that way, the red nation houses slightly more of the countrys eligible voting population (45 percent versus 39 percent), but the blue nation contributes more of the total U.S. gross national product: 46 percent versus 40 percent. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. When we think about the United States, we make the essential error of imagining it as a single nation, a marbled mix of Red and Blue people, Podhorzer writes. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . Podhorzer, like Mason and Grumbach, believes that the MAGA movements long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. Opinions in your inbox: Get a digest of our takes on current events every day. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Prior to the 2020 presidential election, I coauthored Blue Metros, Red States: The Shifting Urban-Rural Divide in America's Swing States. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made waves in 2021 when he announced that he was relocating the electric car giants headquarters from the tech hub of Silicon Valley in California to Austin, Texas. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. Mostly voting for Democratic candidates means a state becomes Blue. The governor outperformed previous Democratic turnout in nearly every part of the state in 2018, and over the last four years has spent countless hours traveling to every corner of Illinois to ensure everyone feels represented by his administration, campaign spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein said. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. Several companies and well-known figures have made highly publicized moves from states like New York and California to destinations like Florida and Texas. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. History, in my view, offers two models. Since 1972, Clay County has drifted back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, voting for Walker in 1972, Democratic nominee Neil Hartigan in 1990 and Poshard in 1998. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative session in a generation. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. Increasingly, Americans are also choosing to move to places that align with their political views. The state was fewer than5 percentage pointsaway from picking Bernie Sanders as its 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. The governors of all four states have positioned themselves to win reelection in 2022 by retaining the support of members of their states dominant party, rendering opposition by people outside that party largely irrelevant. But Arizona is a blue state. Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. New York and New Jersey lost Congressional seats again, based on the 2020 Census. On any political map, Illinois is a reliable blue state that has elected Democratic governors four of the last five elections and last backed a Republican presidential candidate before Michael Jordan was winning championships in Chicago. When Im talking to people, just about everyone acknowledges the fact life is not what it should be, and its certainly not what our founding fathers intended, he said. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. andrew.sinclair@claremontmckenna.edu Texas has started taking public donations to defray some of the $7 million it has spent on buses since April. Beyond determining who will occupy governors' offices, these contests will shape our nation's direction in the coming years. No presidential candidate has won it by more than five percentage points this century. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University and Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University. Weve done an awful lot for the entire state, but, especially I think working together with Republicans, we were able to create jobs. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. . Democrats had hoped this seasons political fervor over abortion rights, the deadly blackout during the 2021 snowstorm, gun violence and the economy would help them overcome a generation-long losing streak in Texas halls of power. Millions of Americans are fleeing blue states for freer, more prosperous red states. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. Many respondents might imagine moving to someplace renowned for its natural environment, such as Hawaii or Colorado. Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. Deep in the heart of Texas somewhere between the starry desert nights of El Paso and the blooming sage of Beaumont is the steady beat of profound contradictions. The rest were either undecided or preferred someone other than the top three candidates. By that. Gov. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. After their expected reelections, at least two of these governorsDeSantis and Newsomare positioned to carry their states policy visions into a national competition for the presidency. Instead, the poll seeks to highlight the levels of early support for Newsom compared to Hochul and DeSantis compared to Abbott, and to explore how DeSantis is faring as a potential successor (or challenger) to Trump. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election by taking 100 electoral votes from this 'blue wall' and flipping them. The responses varied by party, with greater percentages of Republicans than Democrats in both red and blue states expressing this view. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. We refuse to throw in the towel and give up on a state as remarkable, freedom-loving, beautiful, diverse, industrious, and trailblazing as Texas, they said. DO NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE RESULTS IF YOU DID NOT DO YOUR PART!. Lilliana Mason, a Johns Hopkins University political scientist, told me that the experience of Jim Crow segregation offers an important reference point for understanding how far red states might take this movement to roll back civil rights and libertiesnot that they literally would seek to restore segregation, but that they are comfortable with a time when states had laws so entirely different that they created a form of domestic apartheid. Moreover, some Democrats reported a worsening financial situation and others a worsening quality of life; in California, for example, 1-in-3 Democrats thought that the quality of life was worse or that their personal financial situation was worse. The same data show that four additional states lean toward being Democratic states. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. CINCINNATI President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without carrying Ohio since 1960. Florida isn't bright red but a long-standing swing state. All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. But in truth, we have never been one nation. Another issue of concern to the electorate in his area are vaccine mandates. Mediocre turnout on Tuesday may be one of the biggest reasons that Democrats didnt see a stronger advantage come from Texas recent population explosion, said Renee Cross, senior director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. Before Democratic Gov. There was a lot of posturing by some Republicans that theyd hit the trifecta in South Texas by taking all three seats, so Democrats have felt maybe a tiny bit of relief at that, Cross said. while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights, socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-, may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability. Moreover, the stakes are too high to lose faith. With some complex but telling statistical calculations, he documents a return to historical patterns from the Jim Crow era in which the dominant party (segregationist Democrats then, conservative Republicans now) has skewed the playing field to achieve a level of political dominance in the red nation far beyond its level of popular support. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. (April 26), Get a digest of our takes on current events every day, Democrats still face daunting historical odds, voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948, not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. As a follow-up, we asked Democrats to choose head-to-head between Harris and Newsom. Since then, its been a solidly red county. Aug. 3, 2021, at 4:50 p.m. States to Watch in the 2022 Midterms. We also asked Republican respondents to choose head-to-head between DeSantis and Trump. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. One element of that convergence came through what legal scholars call the rights revolution. That was the succession of actions from Congress and the Supreme Court, mostly beginning in the 1960s, that strengthened the floor of nationwide rights and reduced the ability of states to curtail those rights. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER, Chicago will continue to be important to the future of Citadel, as many of our colleagues have deep ties to Illinois, Griffin wrote in a letter to staff. Urban regions of Oregon continue to struggle with surges in violent crime. Nationally and in Illinois, thats concerning, Jacobson said. I just try not to say too much to anybody anymore. This virus has impacted all Americans." MORE: Trump's rebuke of CDC . In Texas and Florida, independents are marginally adding to the incumbents lead, whereas in California and New York, disapproval from independents is not enough to overcome the Democrats large numerical advantages. Iowa, Ohio, and ME-2 are trending red and have gone pretty deep in that direction, Texas is trending blue but the Democrats still aren't getting as much of the vote there as in NC. . Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. The differences among states in the Donald Trump era, he writes, are very similar, both geographically and culturally, to the divides between the Union and the Confederacy. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . The other two are former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, R-Waterloo, and GOP newcomer Jesse Sullivan, of Petersburg. AEI, a center-right think tank, said that empirical evidence suggests that domestic migration patterns in the US do reflect Americans and firms voting/moving with their feet from Democratic-controlled, high-tax, business-unfriendly, fiscally unhealthy, economically stagnant states with relatively high electricity and housing costs to Republican-controlled, lower-tax, more business-friendly, fiscally healthy and economically vibrant states with lower electricity and housing costs.. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still dont have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, he said. Poshard said gun rights arguments and anti-abortion sentiment are issues that drown out most everything else in the region, including workplace-related gains that Democratic-favoring unions have long championed. Think tank sees a lot of blue turning red in 2022 By GARY MILLER Jun 8, 2021 38 A liberal think tank says the 2022 elections will be bright red. released on Monday by the National Association of Realtors. Despite the supposed destiny predicted by the DNC, in 2020, Latinos . Hundreds of Texans died and millions more lost power for days when the states electrical grid crashed during a snowstorm in 2021. That doesn't mean that a Republican can't . Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. As a consequence of the nations deep polarization and geographic partisan sorting, the governors of all four states, and the policies they advance, are safe. The GOP won the governorship. In both California and New York, 1-in-5 Democratic registered voters stated that the quality of life has worsened at a time when most of their state and federal representatives are Democrats. Florida just does whatever it wants though and is impossible to predict, especially this far out. Reviewed in the United States on August 17, 2022 Disc didn't work Images in this review Reviews with images. Billionaire hedge fund boss Ken Griffin, citing a better corporate environment, announced last year that he was moving his firm Citadel from Chicago to Florida. . Bailey is one of three downstate Republicans to publicly declare their intentions to take on Pritzker next year. For all the stresses of the last four years, the vast majority of voters in each state who identify with the incumbents party are going to remain loyal to the incumbent. Most of the states we live in appear to be solidly Republican or Democrat. Americas future is Texas. The impact of these investments (as well as massive defense spending across both periods) on states that had historically spent little on public services and economic development helped steadily narrow the gap in per capita income between the states of the old Confederacy and the rest of the country from the 1930s until about 1980. The gross domestic product per person and the median household income are now both more than 25 percent greater in the blue section than in the red, according to Podhorzers calculations. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. No Democratic-controlled state has passed any of those measures. Amplify your impact and donate now. The States Of the Blue Wall. Midterm dynamics suggest that 2022 is likelier to see Republicans making inroads into blue states than Democrats making inroads into red ones, but, since gubernatorial elections can sometimes . In that year, the Republican Party was in power so the "blue states" were the states projected to go to incumbent Gerald Ford and the "red states" were projected to go to Democrat challenger Jimmy Carter. He said state patronage jobs are no longer being doled out to high-achieving Democratic political workers. That's one of the revealing facts in the Census Bureau's annual assessment of U.S. migration released last week. Since announcing his reelection plans last July, Pritzkers public calendar showed him booked with events on 73 days through Dec. 10. Texas led the nation in restricting abortion rights even before the U.S. Supreme Court removed the constitutional right to it last summer by overturning Roe v. Wade. You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter. Following the primary, the Texas Democratic Party adopted themost progressiveplatform in state history, including planks of Sanders most transformative policies like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal. If Democrats have anything to show for this election, its that they won two of three congressional seats up for grabs in South Texas denying Republicans their hopes of statement victories in a heavily Hispanic region. Many of the cities and states that saw their economies bounce back the most from the pandemic-induced slump were those with Republican leaders, who were typically more likely to undo restrictions as they saw them as too excessive. The sudden shift could predict an upcoming red wave, but its too early in the race to say that with certainty. Yet, concerns about personal finances do not appear to be driving voting decisions in the gubernatorial races in these states. That can't be good," Chishti said. Record-breaking midterm turnout in 2018 was largely due to ORourkes run for Senate and anti-Trump mobilization among Democrats, and the turnout brought them closer to victory than in previous cycles. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. Im looking at some numbers across the country and some places have record midterm turnout, and we just didnt do it in Texas. The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. With Rosalie Chiang, Sandra Oh, Ava Morse, Hyein Park. 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